Roulette - the theory of probability Рулетка на Русском          
Roulette - the theory of probability

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Roulette - the theory of probability


Many people recall that they once heard about the theory of probability when they start to play a roulette.
Unfortunately, all this "the theory of probability" will not help at a game of roulette but only will cause trouble.
Let's look at the the theory of probability.
"The probability theory studies casual events. To each casual event the number is attributed which is called its probability. This number characterizes chances that event will take place. If to increase number of recurrences of experience without any limits then relative frequency of occurrence of event will be steady to some fixed amount and will deviate from it less and less often, the more quantity of experiences is. This amount is a probability of event."

What does it mean? That means it is possible to use probabilities at unlimited increase in number of recurrences of experience. When we play a roulette, we have limited enough number of recurrences of experience (rotations of a wheel of a roulette). We do not have enough amount of time and money for unlimited increase in number of experiences. Probably, in order to confuse players more, mathematics have thought up so-called "conditional probability."

" The conditional probability estimates chances of realization of event A, when it is known that there was an event B. Conditional probability is calculated with a formula Р (A?В) =Р (A) ·P (B.) "

Let's consider on an example what will happen be if we try to use the above-stated formula.
Let's calculate the probability of a successively drop out of five simple chances (for example successively 5 RED).
We have 5 independent events (" the ball doesn't have a memory"), the probability of each of which is 18/37 = 0,49. Probability of a series from 5 RED = 0, 49 * 0,49 * 0,49 * 0,49 * 0,49 = 0,03. Ok, the probability is small, that means it is necessary to play against this probability and we will win. Only how to play? Five times to put on BLACK? But a series from five drop out on BLACK has the same probability as a series from five on RED. Well, we shall wait a series from four drop out on RED, and then we shall put on BLACK. We remember that probability from 5 successively drop out on RED is very small. We twist a roulette and RED, RED, RED, RED at last ... The moment when it is necessary to put on BLACK has come. But the probability of drop out on BLACK has not changed - the ball doesn't have memory. All our calculations and expectations were all for nothing. Features of human physiology are also imposed on " the theory of probability " . Researchers William Goring and Adrian Willowbuy from university of Michigan have found out that loss involves a part of a brain zone of perception of emotions. This zone is the detector of all negative and the amount of loss doesn't matter, and the prize doesn't make this zone active. However the brain takes previous experience into account. A series of losses causes stronger reaction - as though " the detector of losses "- representation about injustice affirms. This reaction reflects player's erroneous representation of that following time black will drop out only because there was RED 4 times successively before.

" The brain believes that it is obliged to win - it expects that everything always comes to an average value ", - Goring has assumed.

The reason isn't in the theory of probability but in its application. The theory of probability a mathematical science, it operates with unlimited recurrence of experiences. But it does not give an answer in simple and concrete situations. If to examine a roulette theoretically then an advantage is 5.26 % (a wheel with two zero) or 2.7 % (with one zero) from the made bets. This advantage makes a roulette theoretically loss game.
Actually, the roulette is a game of success and the player has a chance to win.
If there was no advantage of a casino and there would not be a zero then the result of the game would be a zero? (Theoretically it so) No, you would win or loose a lot more than 2.703 %. It is not necessary to challenge the mathematical advantage of a casino. You cannot remove or change this advantage. If you want to do this - you will be losing your money slowly but guaranteed. Mathematical advantage of a casino is rather small sums of money which can be won or lost very quickly. Think of it, as about unpleasant but the comprehensible tax or payment to a casino for using the game equipment. Remember that you pay mathematical advantage of a casino only when you win.

The casino wants you to play eternally because finally a casino has an advantage.
Your purpose is to win a lot of money for smaller quantity of spins and to have precise criteria when you should stop. A good system in a game of roulette will help you to win a lot of money for smaller quantity of spins and financial management will help to define criteria when you should stop.



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